Daily Strike — Morning Edition

The roughly twelve hours since last night’s briefing produced no fresh kinetic incident, but the diplomatic surface moved sharply. Putin landed in Beijing for talks with Xi, with the Chinese president framing the Middle East as a “critical juncture between war and peace.” Abu Dhabi formally attributed the weekend Barakah drone launch to Iraqi territory, drawing an immediate Iranian counter-claim pointing at Israel. And on Capitol Hill, the Senate cleared a procedural hurdle on a war powers resolution aimed at constraining the president’s authority to keep prosecuting the war without congressional sign-off. Below is how the pieces fit together this morning.

Putin and Xi in Beijing: Xi calls it a “critical juncture between war and peace”

Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping opened bilateral talks at the Great Hall of the People on Wednesday, days after Donald Trump’s own visit to Beijing (Al Jazeera). Per Xinhua coverage relayed by Middle East Eye, Xi told Putin the Middle East stands at a “critical juncture between war and peace” and called for an immediate end to hostilities (Middle East Eye). Putin, for his part, described the Russia-China relationship as resting on “unshakable foundations” (Al Jazeera).

The substantive agenda runs beyond Iran. Moscow is pressing for progress on the long-stalled Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, which would lock in a westbound Russian gas route into China and substantially reshape the energy map a Trump administration is trying to influence through Gulf diplomacy (Middle East Eye). Our full read on the summit and what Xi’s framing implies for the next phase of US Iran policy is here: Putin and Xi meet in Beijing as Xi calls Mideast a ‘critical juncture between war and peace’.

UAE points to Iraq on the Barakah drone origin

The UAE Ministry of Defence said on Tuesday that the drones used in Sunday’s attack on the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant were launched from Iraqi territory and likely involved armed groups operating there, naming Iran-aligned factions as the suspected actors (Middle East Monitor). Within hours, an Iranian military source briefed Tasnim News Agency with a competing account, claiming Israel carried out the strike in an attempt to provoke the UAE into a harder line against Tehran (Middle East Monitor). Attribution is, for now, contested.

IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi briefed the UN Security Council on the incident the same day, calling the situation “of grave concern” while noting radiation levels at Barakah remain unchanged (Middle East Eye). Our coverage of the Grossi briefing and what the agency is asking the Council to do next is in IAEA’s Grossi tells UNSC Barakah strike a ‘grave concern’.

Senate advances war powers resolution

The Senate voted Tuesday to advance a war powers resolution aimed at forcing the administration to end military operations against Iran absent explicit congressional authorization (The Guardian). Four Republicans joined all but one of the chamber’s Democrats — a rare procedural rebuke of the president on an active wartime question (Al Jazeera). Politico reports Senator Bill Cassidy, who lost his primary over the weekend, became the latest GOP defector, with the measure’s sponsors taking advantage of Republican absences to clear the procedural hurdle (Politico).

Our day-of write-up is here: Senate votes 51-47 to curb Trump’s Iran war powers. The next procedural step — a second cloture vote, if scheduled — is on the watch list below.

Markets

Oil eased on Wednesday after the president reiterated that the war with Iran would end “very quickly,” with Brent crude futures slipping in early trade on the comments (Middle East Eye). Two Chinese supertankers carrying roughly four million barrels of Middle East crude departed the Strait of Hormuz after a months-long holding pattern (Middle East Eye). Al Jazeera frames the exits and the price move as the market provisionally testing the Trump-Vance “quick deal” thesis, while cautioning that analysts still expect elevated prices to persist beyond any near-term de-escalation (Al Jazeera). Settlement prints are not yet available; we will mark crude, gold, and the 10-year to close in the evening edition.

Secondary fronts

• Iran’s UN mission accused the US of “spreading lies, false accusations, and disinformation” about Tehran and its nuclear program during Security Council discussions (Middle East Eye).
• Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned of heavier US losses if hostilities resume, citing Iran’s claimed F-35 shootdown earlier in the cycle (Middle East Eye).
• Vice President JD Vance said the Iran conflict would not become an “eternal war,” defending the administration against the Senate’s war powers push (Middle East Eye).

What to watch today

1. UNSC closed consultations on the Barakah strike, scheduled this week per the IAEA briefing.
2. Senate vote on the war powers resolution — a second cloture, if cleared, would put the measure on track for a floor vote.
3. Iraqi government response to the UAE attribution claim on the drone launch origin.

What we’re tracking but haven’t published on yet

• The competing attribution narrative on the Barakah drone strike — Iran’s source-based claim that Israel was the actor remains disputed, and we are watching for additional forensic or signals-intelligence reporting from either capital before publishing.
• Power of Siberia 2 — Moscow is pressing for advancement during the Beijing talks; the test is whether any communique language commits Beijing further than past meetings have.

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— The America Strikes desk