Taiwan Closes Its Biggest War Game as Beijing Eyes the Trump-Xi Summit

Taiwan has wrapped what military observers described as its most expansive war game in the island’s modern history, concluding the exercises as Beijing intensifies diplomatic pressure ahead of the next summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

The drills — Taiwan’s annual Han Kuang exercises, which simulate defense against a full-scale Chinese invasion — reached an unprecedented scale this year, in what Taipei frames as a direct signal of readiness during a period of heightened strategic uncertainty.

The timing is deliberate. Talks between Washington and Beijing over Taiwan’s political status have gained renewed urgency in the months since Trump returned to the White House. Chinese leaders have used the prospect of a Trump-Xi meeting as leverage to press both Washington and Taipei, signaling that any diplomatic opening depends partly on movement on what Beijing considers its core interest.

Beijing’s Posturing

China’s People’s Liberation Army has maintained elevated activity around the Taiwan Strait in recent weeks, with naval and air incursions into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone continuing at a pace analysts say is designed to wear down both Taiwanese morale and American attention.

The posturing carries a dual audience. For domestic consumption, it demonstrates that Xi’s government is not softening its position on Taiwan regardless of how negotiations with Washington proceed. For international observers — particularly those watching the trajectory of Trump-Xi diplomacy — it is a reminder that any agenda between the two leaders will be crowded with security flashpoints.

Trump and Xi have spoken by phone in recent months, with both sides describing the conversations as constructive. U.S. officials have been careful to say that no formal commitments on Taiwan have been made, while Chinese state media has framed each interaction as evidence of momentum toward a new understanding.

Taiwan’s Answer

Taipei’s decision to scale up Han Kuang this year reflects a calculation by President Lai Ching-te’s government that the exercise’s symbolism matters as much as its tactical utility. Displaying readiness at a moment of maximum diplomatic pressure signals to both Beijing and Washington that Taiwan intends to be a variable in any future deal — not a passive subject of it.

The exercises involved combined-arms operations across air, sea, and ground domains, testing Taiwan’s ability to sustain operations under conditions that include disruption to communications infrastructure and logistics networks.

Military analysts have long noted that Taiwan’s greatest vulnerability in a contested scenario is not a single battlefield loss but a rapid collapse of civilian and governmental continuity. Recent war games have placed increasing emphasis on scenarios involving sustained operations beyond the first days of a conflict — a shift from earlier drills that focused primarily on beach defense.

The Regional Picture

The Trump-Xi summit, if it materializes, would be among the most consequential diplomatic meetings of Trump’s second term. Both sides are managing an unstable portfolio: trade tariffs, technology controls, semiconductor export restrictions, and the unresolved scope of U.S. military support commitments to Taipei.

North Korea’s recent escalation adds further complexity. Kim Jong Un personally overseeing nuclear missile tests — read the full story here — signals a posture of autonomous deterrence that complicates Washington’s bandwidth across the Pacific. Trump has already moved to reduce the scale of joint U.S.-South Korea military exercises in response to Pyongyang’s pressure, a decision that Taipei has watched closely as a possible precedent.

The parallel to Taiwan is not lost on Taiwanese officials. If Washington is willing to scale back visible military commitments to Seoul under pressure from Pyongyang, the concern in Taipei is whether the same logic could apply to cross-strait security guarantees in a high-pressure Trump-Xi negotiating environment.

Trump’s broader diplomatic posture — evident in backchannel engagements running parallel to overt military pressure, including in the Iran-IRGC negotiations — suggests a willingness to pursue transactional deals across multiple theaters simultaneously. Taiwan is watching to see whether it becomes a chip in a larger bargain.

What Comes Next

The next Trump-Xi meeting has no confirmed date. U.S. diplomatic channels have indicated that an in-person summit could occur before the end of the year, with trade and technology controls likely to dominate the early agenda.

Taiwan has no seat at the table. But its largest-ever war game just announced, unmistakably, that it intends to be in the room.