geopolitics
4 articles
Oil Eases on Trump's 'Quick End' Pledge as Hormuz Risk Stays Live
Crude softened after Trump reaffirmed he would end the Iran war 'very quickly,' but supertanker traffic, IRGC transit counts and a 'dramatic' Netanyahu call show the physical risk hasn't moved.
Is the US going to war with Iran? An honest assessment
Cable news says yes. The Pentagon says we're being measured. The honest answer is more complicated than either. Three scenarios, the indicators that distinguish them, and the off-ramps that have historically held.
The Strait of Hormuz playbook: what the 1979 parallel actually tells us
Every Iran flare-up gets compared to 1979. The comparison is more useful — and more limited — than most coverage admits. Here's what the historical record actually shows about oil, escalation, and where the off-ramps lie.
Russia and China's Iran posture: real or performative?
Both major powers have benefited from the Iran cycle without committing to either side. Their public statements are loud; their actions are minimal. Here's what each is actually doing — and why the restraint matters more than the rhetoric.