Daily Strike — Morning Edition

This edition covers the thirteen-hour window from 11 a.m. UTC July 7 through midnight UTC July 8. It opened with Hormuz tanker traffic recovering toward its post-MOU baseline and closed with U.S. Central Command striking Iranian coastal military infrastructure — and the Treasury revoking Iran’s oil sales authorization — after the IRGC attacked three commercial vessels in the strait. The Islamabad Memorandum’s 60-day negotiating clock continues to run, but the window has now survived two confirmed military exchanges between Washington and Tehran.

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Top Stories

1. Iran Strikes Three Tankers; Ceasefire Absorbs Worst Breach Yet

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired missiles at at least three commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz on the night of July 7. The Qatari LNG carrier Al-Rekayyat was struck approximately eight nautical miles off the coast of Limah, Oman, catching fire in its engine room, Al Jazeera reported. The Saudi-flagged supertanker Wedyan was also hit, CNN confirmed. A third vessel reported struck by an unidentified projectile sustained structural damage, according to the U.K. military. No casualties were reported at press time. Iranian television said the targeted vessels had ignored warnings; Tehran did not formally claim responsibility.

Bloomberg described it as the biggest day of attacks on commercial shipping since the Islamabad peace deal was signed June 17.

2. CENTCOM Confirms Retaliatory Strikes on Iranian Military Targets

U.S. Central Command officially confirmed overnight strikes targeting Iranian anti-ship cruise missile and drone launch sites, coastal surveillance systems, and ground-to-air missile batteries. CNBC reported CENTCOM described the action as “powerful strikes.” Iranian state media confirmed explosions in Bandar Abbas, Sirik, and on Qeshm Island. A U.S. official cited by CNN said port facilities were also struck. Iran had not issued a formal foreign ministry response at time of publication.

3. Treasury Revokes General License X; Brent Surges

The U.S. Treasury Department revoked General License X — the sanctions waiver that had allowed Iran to sell crude oil internationally since June 17 — and replaced it with General License X1, a narrow 10-day wind-down provision requiring payments on existing Iranian oil transactions to flow into a blocked U.S. account, The Hill reported. A senior U.S. official described Iran’s tanker attacks as “wholly unacceptable” and said the MOU is “performance-based.” Brent crude settled 3 percent higher at $74.16 before rising a further 5.6 percent to $76.04 in after-hours trading, per CNBC. West Texas Intermediate moved to $72.25 after hours.

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Markets

Oil prices reversed weeks of decline driven by recovering Hormuz transit and OPEC+ supply signals. The prior morning briefing had Brent at $71.88; by end-of-session on July 7 it was $74.16, and after-hours moves on the sanctions news pushed it toward $76. WTI followed in parallel, settling $70.44 in-session and reaching $72.25 after hours.

Defense equities entered the session on firm footing before the evening developments. Lockheed Martin (LMT) last quoted at $537.02, supported by a $35 billion THAAD interceptor contract and a $4.8 billion PAC-3 award. RTX was at $200.89. Gold was trading near $4,155 per troy ounce. All three asset classes are expected to move higher when markets open July 8 following the overnight military exchange.

War-risk insurance premiums for Hormuz transit — which had fallen from peak crisis levels of 2.5 to 5 percent of hull value to 0.2 to 0.4 percent by late June — are expected to reprice materially after UKMTO elevated the strait’s threat classification to “severe.”

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Secondary Fronts

IAEA inspection standoff continues. Iran’s deputy foreign minister said access to enrichment facilities remains contingent on “practical steps” to lift sanctions — the same sanctions that have now been reimposed. The IAEA director-general has publicly stated inspections will occur; Tehran maintains no schedule exists and that the matter is reserved for a final comprehensive agreement.

Doha July 11 resumption in doubt. The June 30–July 1 implementation round had produced agreement on a violation-reporting channel and a partial frozen-funds release framework, Al Jazeera reported. Qatar and Pakistan, the mediating parties, had not called an emergency session or issued a joint restraint statement at time of publication.

Trump at NATO Ankara. President Trump told reporters at the 36th NATO summit he was “very disappointed” in European allies’ response to the Iran conflict and praised Turkey as “instrumental” during the war. He discussed possible resumption of F-35 talks with President Erdogan, CNN reported. The timing — tanker attacks coinciding with a major allied gathering — mirrored the pattern of the earlier ceasefire breakdown in late June.

Russia and China. Both governments continue to reject the UN 1737 sanctions committee as illegitimate and have not recognized the E3-triggered snapback mechanism that reimposed UN sanctions in September 2025. That posture limits Western options for multilateral pressure beyond bilateral U.S. and EU measures. China’s relationship with Iran — including the Hormuz transit-fee concessions Iran’s ambassador to Beijing described last week — adds complexity to Beijing’s role as a potential stabilizer.

Khamenei funeral. Week-long state processions for the former supreme leader run through July 9. Mojtaba Khamenei, the acting supreme leader, has not appeared publicly since reportedly being wounded in February. The identity of who holds effective authority over Iran’s IRGC and nuclear decisions remains unclear.

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What to Watch Tomorrow

1. Iran’s formal foreign ministry response to the confirmed U.S. CENTCOM strikes — whether Tehran characterizes them as a ceasefire violation, demands condemnation, or absorbs the retaliation to protect the negotiating track.

2. Qatar and Pakistan signaling on the July 11 Doha session — a joint statement urging resumption would indicate the mediation architecture is intact; silence or a postponement announcement would signal a more serious rupture.

3. War-risk insurance premium re-pricing when London markets open July 8, the first trading session after UKMTO’s “severe” designation; rates will set the effective cost of Hormuz transit and drive tanker operator decisions about whether to continue transits.

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What We Are Tracking But Have Not Yet Published On

The Arms Control Association has reported that the U.S. and Iran have been “negotiating in public,” with each side making contradictory statements about what the Islamabad MOU actually requires on Hormuz navigation and IAEA access timelines. A structured analysis of the memorandum’s ambiguous clauses — and which side’s interpretation is more consistent with the text — is in progress.

The specific legal effect of General License X1’s blocked-account provision on Chinese buyers of Iranian crude, who have been purchasing via non-dollar channels, is also under review.

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— The America Strikes desk