Daily Strike — Morning Edition

This edition covers the thirteen-hour window from July 6 at 11 a.m. UTC through midnight July 7. Negotiations between the United States and Iran remain formally paused for the week-long funeral of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei; talks are scheduled to resume July 11 in Doha. In the gap, Iran’s ambassador to China delivered the most direct public statement yet on Tehran’s intention to monetize Hormuz passage, oil markets absorbed a fresh OPEC+ supply signal, and new satellite imagery added a nuclear compliance question to the already-crowded pre-negotiation agenda.

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Top Stories

1. Iran Declares Hormuz Fees Inevitable

Speaking at the World Peace Forum in Beijing on July 5, Iranian Ambassador Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli told attendees that Tehran “will definitely” charge service fees for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. He framed the charges as covering security supervision, vessel tracking, and environmental compliance rather than tolls — a semantic distinction that Washington has flatly rejected. He added that China and other nations that had “stood by” Iran during the war would receive “special considerations.” Bloomberg confirmed that Iran’s envoy had specifically said Beijing would receive concessions.

The June 17 memorandum of understanding requires free transit for the 60-day negotiating window. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that Washington would “aggressively” sanction Oman if it facilitated any Iranian fee mechanism. Iran and Oman have been discussing a “voluntary service fee” framework that Tehran has described as compulsory and Washington has characterized as optional — a gap that will come to a head at the July 11 resumption.

2. Khamenei Funeral Pauses Diplomacy

A week of state funeral processions for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei began July 4 and runs through July 9. Khamenei was killed on February 28, the first day of the U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran. His son, acting Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, reportedly remains in an undisclosed location after being wounded in the same strikes. U.S. officials agreed to pause direct talks for the duration of the funeral. Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani has been meeting U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Doha to prepare the July 11 resumption.

3. Satellite Imagery Raises MOU Compliance Questions

CSIS published an analysis of satellite imagery from late June showing continued vehicle activity and apparent ongoing construction at Pickaxe Mountain — Iran’s deeply buried nuclear tunnel complex in the Zagros range. The Institute for Science and International Security separately confirmed the findings. The MOU signed June 17 requires Iran to maintain the status quo at nuclear-related facilities, which experts argue prohibits new construction at Pickaxe Mountain. The Times of Israel reported that Israeli and Western officials have flagged the imagery as an apparent MOU violation. The IAEA has never been granted access to the site, and its purpose has not been officially confirmed by Iran.

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Markets

Brent crude settled at $71.88 on July 6, down 0.33 percent, while WTI fell to $68.40 after OPEC+ approved an increase of 188,000 barrels per day from August. The combination of recovering Hormuz transit volumes and the OPEC+ supply signal has capped near-term upside, even as the transit-fee dispute introduces a new layer of medium-term uncertainty.

Brent peaked near $150 in March when IRGC interdictions had reduced strait crossings to fewer than five per day and tanker war-risk insurance premiums reached 2.5 to 5 percent of hull value per transit — roughly $5 million per very large crude carrier. By late June, shipping-industry data showed traffic recovering to approximately 30 crossings per day, still under one-quarter of pre-conflict levels. A mandatory fee regime, if implemented after the 60-day MOU window closes, would not restore crisis-level prices but would add a persistent friction cost to every cargo through the waterway.

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Secondary Fronts

Russia-China diplomatic positioning. Both Moscow and Beijing have maintained public neutrality while providing Iran with what Foreign Minister Araghchi called “good cooperation… politically, economically, even militarily.” CIA Director John Ratcliffe confirmed earlier this month that Russia and China have shared intelligence with Tehran. China’s posture as a mediator while seeking Hormuz fee concessions illustrates the dual-track approach Beijing has employed throughout the conflict.

Doha back-channel. Qatar remains the primary intermediary for U.S.-Iran communications during the funeral pause. Qatari officials have been shuttling between Witkoff, Kushner, and Iranian counterparts in preparation for July 11. The Doha channel covers not only Hormuz but Iran’s frozen assets, long-term sanctions relief, and the nuclear file — the three interlocking issues that no single session is likely to resolve.

Iran’s frozen assets. Billions of dollars in Iranian state assets remain frozen in third-country accounts under pre-conflict sanctions. The MOU references their release as a negotiating item. Iran has signaled that asset unfreezing is a prerequisite for any final agreement on the nuclear file, while the U.S. has treated it as a downstream reward for verified compliance — a sequencing dispute that mirrors the nuclear talks of 2015.

Fordow status. Separate from Pickaxe Mountain, recent satellite assessments found that Fordow’s tunnel entrances remain backfilled with dirt and that no major reconstruction has begun at the three principal nuclear facilities — Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan — all of which sustained heavy damage during the February-June campaign. That relative inactivity at the known facilities makes the continued construction at Pickaxe Mountain harder for Iranian officials to explain as routine maintenance.

Oil market watch. OPEC+ delegates meeting over the weekend approved the August output increase despite dissent from some members concerned about demand softness. The decision reflects confidence among Gulf producers that the Hormuz normalization will hold — a bet that the transit-fee dispute could complicate if Iran escalates its posture heading into July 11.

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What to Watch Tomorrow

1. Whether any Iranian or U.S. official signals flexibility on the voluntary-versus-compulsory fee distinction ahead of the July 11 opening session in Doha — even an informal comment would shift the negotiating dynamic.

2. Whether the IAEA or a member government formally raises the Pickaxe Mountain satellite findings as a compliance question, triggering an official Iranian response that would test the MOU’s dispute-resolution mechanism.

3. Any movement on Oman’s public framing of the transit framework, particularly if Muscat distances itself from Tehran’s “compulsory” language in advance of U.S. Treasury sanctions pressure.

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What We Are Tracking But Have Not Yet Published On

Mojtaba Khamenei’s condition and authority. The new supreme leader has not appeared publicly since reportedly being wounded in February. It is unclear who holds effective authority over Iran’s military and nuclear files — whether it is Khamenei, the IRGC command, or a council of senior clerics. This ambiguity may explain why the ambassador’s Beijing statement was floated at a forum rather than through a formal government channel.

The Pickaxe Mountain access question. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi has not publicly demanded site access to Pickaxe Mountain since the MOU was signed. A formal inspection request would test whether Iran treats the site as covered by the MOU’s status-quo clause. If Tehran refuses access, it creates a verifiable compliance breach that U.S. negotiators could use — or that could derail talks entirely.

Iran’s frozen asset total and custodian banks. Reports have cited figures ranging from $6 billion to over $100 billion in frozen Iranian funds across various jurisdictions, but the precise sum, the holding institutions, and the conditions for release have not been publicly confirmed. The gap between Iranian expectations and U.S. offers on this question may be the most underreported obstacle to a final deal.

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— The America Strikes desk