Daily Strike — Evening Edition

The afternoon and evening of Tuesday, July 7 brought the sharpest single-day escalation in the Iran-U.S. standoff since the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding was signed three weeks ago. Iran struck three commercial vessels in or near the Strait of Hormuz, the United States revoked Iran’s oil export license, and oil futures surged more than 5 percent in after-hours trading — all while President Trump sat in Ankara for the 36th NATO summit.

Top Stories

1. Iran strikes three tankers; U.S. revokes oil export license

Iran attacked at least three commercial vessels in or near the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, including the Qatari LNG carrier Al-Rekayyat and the Saudi crude supertanker Wedyan, Al Jazeera reported. A third vessel sustained structural damage from an unidentified projectile, the U.K. military confirmed, per NPR. CNN reported Iran used a missile to strike the Wedyan.

Washington responded within hours. The U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control revoked General License X — the oil export authorization issued to Iran as part of the June 17 Islamabad MoU — and replaced it with General License X1, a wind-down provision permitting only existing transactions to close by July 17, with payment required into a blocked U.S. account. A U.S. official described the attacks as “wholly unacceptable,” the Times of Israel reported. Bloomberg reported the revocation was coordinated with the State Department and NSC.

CBS News reported the U.S. also launched retaliatory military strikes on Iranian targets; the Pentagon had not issued a formal statement at publication time.

2. Iran continues to block IAEA inspectors at bombed nuclear sites

Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf reiterated that IAEA inspectors “will not be granted any access” to Fordow, Natanz, or Isfahan — the three nuclear facilities damaged during Operation Epic Fury. The position is backed by a parliamentary law and a Supreme National Security Council resolution. Tehran argues the sites are structurally unsafe and that inspection access will only be addressed as part of a final comprehensive agreement, the Middle East Monitor reported. The IAEA is currently relying on satellite imagery and previously collected data to track the status of Iran’s nuclear program.

3. Trump at NATO, critical of European allies on Iran

President Trump arrived at the 36th NATO Heads of State Summit in Ankara on Tuesday, telling reporters he was “very disappointed” with European allies’ posture toward the Iran conflict, CNN reported. In a bilateral meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Trump praised Turkey as “instrumental” during the war and said the U.S. would “consider” F-35 sales to Ankara. The backdrop — tanker attacks in Hormuz unfolding as leaders gathered — heightened pressure on the alliance over burden-sharing and Gulf security commitments.

Markets

Hormuz war-risk insurance premiums rose from 0.125 percent of vessel value before Operation Epic Fury to between 0.2 and 0.4 percent per transit — adding up to $250,000 per voyage on a very large crude carrier. Tuesday’s attacks are expected to push those rates higher. OPEC+ had been signaling supply increases before the attacks; that calculus may now be revisited.

Secondary Fronts

• Russia/Ukraine at NATO: Russia launched ballistic missile strikes on Kyiv during the summit’s opening sessions. Eleven people were killed in the Kyiv strike, as reported here. President Trump held a separate call with Vladimir Putin pressing on a negotiated end to the war, per our earlier coverage.
• IRGC posture: Even after the June 17 MoU, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired missiles at the U.S. Ali Al Salem airbase in Kuwait and the U.S. Fifth Fleet in Bahrain in late June, Al Jazeera reported. Tuesday’s tanker attacks indicate the IRGC continues to operate on a track that diverges from Iran’s diplomatic posture.
• Snapback sanctions: Russia and China challenged the legal basis for reimposed UN snapback sanctions on Iran at a Security Council session, per the UN press office. The dispute adds another layer to the broader multilateral negotiating environment.
• E3 sanctions offer: The United Kingdom, Germany, and France have said they are prepared to lift certain sanctions on Iran under a new nuclear agreement — but that offer is conditioned on IAEA verification access that Tehran is currently refusing to grant.
• China/Hormuz fees: Iran separately sought to collect transit fees from Chinese-flagged vessels passing through Hormuz under a new bilateral framework, testing Beijing’s declared neutrality in the talks.
• Defense backlog: RTX ended Q1 with a $271 billion backlog; Lockheed Martin’s stands at $194 billion following a $4.8 billion PAC-3 missile production contract and multi-year framework agreements to scale Patriot and THAAD production three to four times current rates.
• Taiwan: Taiwan announced an expansion of anti-communist civic education programs in schools as a response to escalating pressure from Beijing, adding to a broader picture of Indo-Pacific security stress.

What to Watch Tomorrow

1. Whether the Pentagon formally confirms U.S. retaliatory strikes on Iranian targets and which sites were struck — any escalation beyond Tuesday’s reported action would materially alter the diplomatic outlook.
2. Iran’s official response to the General License X revocation: whether Tehran signals a willingness to return to the MoU framework or announces counter-measures.
3. OPEC+ and Gulf state statements on oil supply given the renewed Hormuz disruption — any signal from Riyadh or Abu Dhabi on output adjustments would move Brent significantly.

What We’re Tracking But Haven’t Published On Yet

Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile remains unaccounted for. With IAEA inspectors barred from Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, the agency has no on-site picture of the material’s disposition. A senior IAEA official has not yet issued a public assessment since Tuesday’s escalation began. We are also watching for any UN Security Council emergency session request from the United States or Gulf member states, and monitoring whether the 10-day General License X1 wind-down period produces a diplomatic opening or simply expires without resolution.

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— The America Strikes desk