Daily Strike — Morning Edition

In the twelve hours since last night’s evening edition, the conflict widened on a second front. Israel’s prime minister ordered strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs and asked the Trump administration to approve a broader air campaign in Lebanon, moving beyond the targeted-killing doctrine that has governed Israeli operations there since March. Meanwhile the IRGC-CENTCOM tit-for-tat near the Strait of Hormuz continued overnight, with US strikes on Goruk and Qeshm Island answered by an IRGC strike on the airbase used in the US attack. Oil jumped above $93 a barrel Brent on the Lebanon escalation.

Israel orders Beirut strikes, seeks wider air campaign

Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered strikes on Dahieh, the Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs of Beirut, ahead of a UN Security Council emergency session on Lebanon, according to Middle East Eye and the BBC. The decision represents a significant escalation from the ground offensive that has been running since the IDF crossed the Litani River last week.

Separately, Israeli officials asked the Trump administration to greenlight large-scale airstrikes in Beirut rather than limiting operations to targeted killings of Hezbollah commanders. The request signals that Jerusalem views the Lebanon campaign as entering a new phase requiring heavier US political cover. Washington has not publicly responded to the request.

The diplomatic track is moving in the opposite direction. Washington proposed a “roadmap” for de-escalation in Lebanon, according to a US official cited by Al Jazeera. Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri offered to guarantee Hezbollah’s commitment to a ceasefire if Israel ends its military operations — a conditional offer that depends on Jerusalem standing down first. The gap between the military escalation and the diplomatic offers defines the Lebanon picture this morning.

Iran-US tit-for-tat strikes continue near Hormuz

CENTCOM struck Iranian military sites on Goruk and Qeshm Island, describing the action as self-defense after an Iranian drone downed a US MQ-1 reconnaissance aircraft. The IRGC retaliated by striking the airbase on Sirik Island that the US had used to launch the Goruk/Qeshm sorties. Kuwait intercepted missiles and drones during the exchange, per Al Jazeera’s day-94 summary.

The more consequential development overnight was a BBC Verify satellite analysis showing that Iranian strikes have damaged at least 20 US military sites since the war began — substantially more than CENTCOM has publicly acknowledged. The analysis compared commercial satellite imagery from before and after reported strike windows and identified structural damage at facilities across the Gulf that have not appeared in Pentagon briefings. The gap between the satellite record and the official disclosure is significant.

Iran accuses US of ceasefire violations

Iran’s chief negotiator Ghalibaf accused the United States of failing to uphold the terms of the ceasefire, citing the continuing naval blockade near Hormuz and Washington’s failure to restrain Israel’s escalation in Lebanon as “clear evidence of US noncompliance.” The statement adds diplomatic friction to deal talks that were already moving slowly after Trump sent back a revised draft with toughened terms last week. Whether Ghalibaf’s framing is a negotiating posture or a signal that Tehran is preparing to walk away from the current framework is the question sitting behind the accusation.

Markets

Oil rose more than 2% on the Lebanon escalation. Brent crude settled at $93.19 a barrel and WTI at $89.73, with the move driven primarily by the prospect of a wider Israeli air campaign opening a second sustained front alongside the Hormuz disruption. Goldman Sachs warned of “significant upside price risks” from persistent Middle East supply losses, though the bank also noted that demand destruction — particularly in Asian manufacturing economies — may partially offset the supply shock. Indian refiners froze jet fuel prices after an 8.6% April hike, an early indicator of downstream pass-through limits.

Secondary fronts

The French Navy seized the Tagor, a Russia-linked sanctioned tanker, in the Atlantic with UK naval support. The interception is part of a broader European effort to disrupt Russia’s shadow fleet operations that have been circumventing oil export sanctions since 2022.

Germany is scrambling to accelerate Bundeswehr rearmament under Chancellor Merz, according to Foreign Policy. The push reflects both the Trump administration’s pressure on NATO allies to increase defense spending and the reality that the Middle East conflict cycle has exposed European dependence on US force projection in ways Berlin finds uncomfortable.

What to watch tomorrow

1. UNSC emergency session on Lebanon — a vote on a de-escalation resolution is expected Monday, though a US veto remains likely if the text constrains Israeli operations.
2. Iran-US tit-for-tat strikes near Hormuz — whether the IRGC escalates further after the Goruk/Qeshm/Sirik exchanges or holds at the current retaliatory tempo.
3. Oil markets open Tuesday after Brent closes above $93 — watch for a sustained premium or reversal depending on diplomacy signals from the UNSC session and any movement on the US-Iran deal talks.

What we’re tracking but haven’t published on yet

• The BBC Verify satellite damage assessment showing 20 US military sites hit by Iranian strikes — more than CENTCOM has acknowledged. A full standalone article with the satellite evidence is pending.
• War on the Rocks analysis on the drone-vs-F-35 procurement mismatch in Gulf states, and what the Hormuz-area exchanges reveal about force structure assumptions.
• Goldman Sachs detailed oil supply-demand model projections, including the bank’s scenarios for Brent if the Lebanon front sustains alongside Hormuz disruption.

Tips: tips@americastrikes.com — sourcing is non-negotiable.

— The America Strikes desk