Daily Strike — Evening Edition

This evening edition covers the eleven hours from 11:00Z through 22:00Z on May 13 — a period defined by one Senate vote falling one short, a presidential plane touching down in Beijing, and a Pentagon comptroller putting a $29 billion price tag on a war that has no publicly stated endgame.

Top Stories

Senate Fails 50-49 on War Powers — Pentagon Weighs Operational Rename to Reset the Clock

The seventh Senate attempt to invoke the War Powers Resolution against the Iran war failed 50-49 on Wednesday — the closest margin of the seven votes and the first to come after the 60-day statutory deadline the act imposes on presidential military action.

Three Republicans crossed party lines: Senators Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins, and Rand Paul all voted yes on the resolution. The deciding vote against was cast by Democrat John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, whose no held the Republican majority coalition together by a single seat. A 51-49 result would have forced a veto confrontation and a constitutional standoff; instead the administration retains uncontested operational authority for the foreseeable future.

The timing of the vote coincides with a contingency the Pentagon is already working around. As reported by NBC News this morning, military planners are considering renaming Operation Epic Fury to “Operation Sledgehammer” if combat resumes — a maneuver that would legally restart the War Powers Act’s 60-day clock and allow the administration to characterize resumed strikes as a new operation rather than a continuation of one that has already exceeded the statutory window. The Senate vote’s failure removes immediate legislative pressure, but the rename option signals the administration is doing legal groundwork regardless.

Trump Lands in Beijing — Presses Xi to Use China’s Oil Leverage Over Tehran

President Trump arrived in Beijing on Wednesday for the first presidential China visit since 2017, with the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz closure leading the agenda. The administration’s core ask is direct: China buys more than 80% of Iran’s crude exports, and Washington is pressing Xi to condition future oil purchases — or at minimum withhold diplomatic cover — on Iranian agreement to reopen the Strait.

Analysts are not expecting a comprehensive deal. The more likely outcome from Day 1 is a joint statement that calls for Hormuz transit in general language, stops short of timelines or enforcement mechanisms, and gives both sides political cover to continue talks. A vague communiqué would likely be read by oil markets as ceasefire collapse odds holding steady rather than declining. Any language committing Beijing to specific economic consequences if Iran refuses transit — yuan contract conditions, purchase caps, or a joint timeline — would be a materially different outcome and would move Brent immediately. Day 2 of the summit continues Thursday.

The agenda competes with other items both sides consider existential: tariffs, rare earths, Taiwan, and semiconductor export controls. The Iran file does not have the bilateral room to itself.

Pentagon: Iran War Cost Now $29 Billion, Mostly Munitions Replacement

Pentagon Comptroller Jules Hurst told House lawmakers on Wednesday that the total cost of the Iran war has reached $29 billion — a $4 billion increase in two weeks. Of that total, $24 billion is attributed to munitions replacement and equipment repair rather than operational expenditures. The figure does not include reconstruction costs for the nine U.S. regional bases damaged during the initial strike exchange; no official estimate for those costs has been released.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth faced bipartisan questioning during the same hearing over the war’s endgame strategy, the pace of weapons stockpile depletion, and what a sustainable cost trajectory looks like without a supplemental appropriation. Neither the comptroller’s testimony nor Hegseth’s responses produced a public estimate for how long current stockpiles can sustain operations at their present tempo if the ceasefire breaks down and strikes resume. Defense contractor shares reflected the sustained demand signal: LMT trading near $520, RTX elevated on munitions demand, and the ITA defense ETF up approximately 38% year-to-date in 2026.

Markets

Oil closed lower on the day as Trump’s Beijing arrival introduced a slim probability of a diplomatic resolution to Hormuz. Brent crude settled at $105.65/bbl. WTI settled at $102.00/bbl. Both figures remain roughly 65% above year-ago levels; Saudi Aramco’s CEO has warned that the market is losing approximately 100 million barrels per week from the closure.

Fixed-income markets were the day’s more notable story. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.46–4.48% — its highest level since July — after hotter-than-expected PPI data compounded the inflation picture established by April CPI accelerating to 3.8%. The yield move reflects a market pricing in sustained war-related supply shock inflation with limited near-term Fed offset.

Gold pulled back to approximately $4,680/oz, down from recent highs, as the yield spike and a stronger dollar weighed on bullion. The safe-haven bid has not disappeared — gold remains elevated on an absolute basis — but the directional pressure on Wednesday was downward.

Secondary Fronts

Pakistan Partially Confirms Iranian Aircraft at Nur Khan Air Base

CBS News reported that Iran moved military aircraft — including an RC-130 reconnaissance plane — to Pakistan’s Nur Khan Air Base following the April 8 ceasefire, a move that would place those assets under Pakistani airspace and potentially outside the range of legal U.S. targeting. Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry issued a partial confirmation that aircraft were present at the base but called the CBS characterization “misleading,” without specifying what was inaccurate.

The disclosure damages Pakistan’s credibility as a neutral mediator at a moment when Islamabad has been positioned as one of the few back-channels still functioning between Washington and Tehran. If Pakistan knowingly hosted Iranian military assets while publicly claiming neutrality, the administration loses a diplomatic relay it has been relying on. The story broke on May 12; the Foreign Ministry response on May 13 has not moved to a full denial.

OFAC Designates 12 IRGC-Linked Entities Facilitating Iranian Oil Sales to China

The Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control designated 12 individuals and entities on May 12 for facilitating IRGC crude oil sales to China through front companies. The designation targets the revenue channel funding Iranian weapons programs and lands one day before Trump arrived in Beijing to ask Xi to restrain those same purchases at the state level. The timing — sanctions on the shadow network while the administration negotiates with the sovereign buyer — reflects the dual-track approach the Treasury and State Departments have been running since early April.

What to Watch Tomorrow

1. Trump-Xi summit Day 2 in Beijing. Whether China agrees to apply material pressure on Iran regarding Hormuz transit or nuclear concessions is the central question — any joint statement language specific enough to carry enforcement implications will move oil markets immediately. Watch for the presence or absence of a Hormuz timeline, conditional purchase language, or a jointly staffed diplomatic channel in any communiqué issued Thursday.
2. Ceasefire stability. With Pakistan’s mediator credibility damaged by the Nur Khan aircraft story and Trump describing the truce as “on massive life support,” watch for any IRGC action near U.S. naval assets in the Persian Gulf or any signal from Tehran that the 14-point peace framework remains operative. A breakdown in back-channel communications would be the leading indicator before any kinetic event.
3. Hormuz shipping. Any confirmed commercial transit through the Strait or a new IRGC interdiction attempt in the U.S.-designated enhanced security area near Oman would constitute the most significant real-world data point of the week. Lloyd’s of London and IMO statements expected by end of day Thursday carry market implications regardless of the diplomatic track.

What We’re Tracking but Haven’t Published On Yet

• Reconstruction costs for damaged U.S. bases. Comptroller Hurst’s $29 billion figure explicitly excluded costs for nine bases damaged in the initial exchange. No official estimate has been published, and congressional appropriators will need one before a supplemental spending bill can move. The number, when released, will reframe the total cost conversation.
• Houthi posture in the Red Sea. With Hormuz closed, the Red Sea corridor is absorbing a larger share of global energy flow. Houthi activity — whether attacks, ceasefires, or new threat declarations — now compounds or partially offsets the Hormuz disruption depending on trajectory. The two theaters are increasingly linked in market pricing.
• EU diplomatic posture. The European Union has remained largely absent from public ceasefire diplomacy despite significant economic exposure through insurance underwriting, shipping, and energy import contracts. Whether Brussels attempts to insert itself at the margins of the Beijing summit or tables an independent framework remains an open question with material implications for any eventual deal structure.

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— The America Strikes desk