Russia Has Resources to Fight Through 2028, Ukraine Intelligence Warns

Ukraine’s military intelligence directorate has assessed that Russia retains sufficient financial and material resources to sustain its war effort at least through 2028, The Kyiv Independent reported Sunday — a finding that complicates U.S.-led diplomatic efforts to end the conflict and signals a multi-year war horizon for Kyiv’s partners in Washington and Brussels.

The assessment from Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, known by the Ukrainian acronym HUR, arrived as Kyiv registered its highest air raid alert level of the war. The Independent reported that Moscow has stepped up aerial attacks, pushing the frequency and scale of strikes above any previous peak in the conflict.

What the Assessment Says

The core HUR finding is that Russia has not exhausted the economic foundation required to keep fighting. Though the intelligence directorate did not enumerate which resources were evaluated, analysts watching the conflict have pointed to several factors that could support such a conclusion: Russia’s continued export revenues from oil and gas routed through non-Western intermediaries, a domestic defense industrial base that has been expanded and placed on a wartime footing, and military-technical cooperation with partners that has replenished certain categories of equipment and munitions.

The warning challenges an assumption that has surfaced periodically in Western policy discussions — that mounting economic pressure will eventually compel Moscow to seek a negotiated settlement on terms acceptable to Kyiv. If the HUR assessment is accurate, Ukraine and its partners face the prospect of a sustained conflict of attrition extending well into the next decade with no guarantee that time works in Ukraine’s favor.

Escalating Attacks

The intelligence disclosure coincided with a surge in Russian aerial operations that pushed Kyiv’s air raid alert level to a new high point in the war. Moscow’s pattern of intensifying strikes on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure heading into autumn follows a strategy Russian forces have employed in prior years: targeting the energy grid and civilian systems before winter in order to erode Ukrainian public resilience and strain government resources.

The simultaneous appearance of a long-range resource assessment and an immediate escalation in attacks reflects the dual-track nature of Russia’s current posture — negotiating on the diplomatic margin while continuing to press militarily.

Diplomacy Against the Clock

Against this backdrop, U.S. special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner completed a round of shuttle diplomacy this week. OilPrice reported the two traveled from Moscow to Kyiv in what the Trump administration characterized as a high-profile effort to lay groundwork for ceasefire negotiations, reviving a diplomatic drive that had stalled earlier in the year.

The visit did not produce a breakthrough. Writing in Al Jazeera, analysts described the Witkoff-Kushner mission as unable to deliver an immediate agreement but said it could help “begin a new process.” Moscow signaled measured openness: Reuters reported that the Kremlin said it “does not rule out” a restart of peace talks with Ukraine and the United States — language that stops short of a commitment but marks a rhetorical opening compared with earlier Russian positions.

Kyiv has received the diplomatic overtures with public skepticism. Ukrainian officials have argued consistently that any ceasefire must come with binding security guarantees that prevent Russia from rearming and resuming hostilities — a condition that remains far from what Moscow has indicated it would accept.

The Strategic Tension

The juxtaposition of HUR’s 2028 resource assessment with renewed peace diplomacy captures the fundamental tension in the war’s current phase: both sides retain the capacity to continue fighting, neither has conceded the core terms the other demands, and international mediators are working against a timeline that Moscow may believe runs in its favor.

For Ukraine’s partners, the intelligence finding adds urgency to questions about what support package — additional air defense systems, weapons, long-term economic assistance — will be required to sustain Kyiv through a conflict that may extend far beyond earlier projections.

Witkoff and Kushner are expected to brief President Trump on conditions in both capitals. Whether the administration reads the Kremlin’s non-ruling-out as a viable opening or as insufficient basis for continued engagement will shape the near-term direction of American involvement in efforts to end the war.

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