US-Iran Ceasefire Expires, Oil Tops $91 as Hormuz Stays Shut

The US-Iran ceasefire elapsed Monday without a renewal agreement, sending crude prices above $91 a barrel and confirming that the Strait of Hormuz will remain shut until Washington satisfies the conditions Tehran has attached to their interim deal.

Iran announced that the strait will stay closed until the United States meets those terms, Middle East Eye reported. The declaration removed the last expectation that maritime traffic could resume quietly once the ceasefire’s initial window expired.

Markets Begin Pricing for a Long Siege

Oil prices climbed and Treasury yields rose in early Monday trading as investors shifted from hoping for a near-term diplomatic resolution to hedging against a prolonged Hormuz disruption, Reuters reported. The move marks a qualitative shift in positioning: through most of the ceasefire window traders held a risk premium that could reverse quickly on a deal; that premium is now migrating into forward curves stretching months ahead.

Reuters separately noted that oil markets are beginning to price in a structural Hormuz crisis rather than a transitory one — a distinction that matters for refiners, airlines, and any economy that imports seaborne energy.

Gold, normally a beneficiary of geopolitical tension, edged lower as firmer Treasury yields and elevated oil prices weighed on the metal ahead of the Federal Reserve’s release of meeting minutes. Higher yields raise the opportunity cost of holding gold, and traders appear to be prioritizing the yield signal over the safe-haven impulse for now.

Indian equities opened lower, with Reuters citing oil’s breach of $91 a barrel as a source of pressure. India is among the world’s largest crude importers, and each dollar added to the barrel price passes through relatively quickly into fuel and inflation costs.

Iran’s Regime Doubles Down on Nuclear Ambitions

Against this backdrop, a senior Iranian military official signaled that Tehran is not retreating on a second front. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps deputy chief declared that Iran will “vigorously pursue nuclear technology,” according to Tasnim News Agency, the semi-official outlet with close ties to the IRGC.

The assertion complicates Washington’s negotiating position. An agreement that leaves the Hormuz blockade in place while nuclear work continues offers the United States administration little to show domestically. Iran’s regime, by contrast, can frame the situation as a successful test of economic and military leverage.

China’s Fuel Exports Begin Recovering

One signal that cuts against an imminent escalation scenario: China’s fuel exports are edging back toward pre-war levels after Beijing eased the curbs it imposed when the Iran conflict intensified, Reuters reported. The move suggests Beijing believes the energy supply disruption is stabilizing enough to resume outbound product flows — a tentative signal that China is not anticipating a sharp near-term escalation.

China’s calculus differs from the West’s. Beijing imports Iranian crude and has maintained commercial ties with Tehran throughout the conflict. If Chinese fuel exports are recovering, it likely reflects access to alternative supply chains rather than any optimism about the Hormuz timeline.

What the Ceasefire Expiration Changes

The formal lapse of the ceasefire does not necessarily trigger immediate military action — both sides have shown measured restraint throughout the current cycle, and the interim deal framework presumably contains continuing obligations. But it removes the diplomatic clock that had kept markets and officials in a wait-and-see posture.

For shipping, insurance, and energy markets, the expiration confirms there is no near-term date to plan around. Tanker operators, LNG cargoes routed around the Cape of Good Hope, and industrial buyers in Europe and Asia must now treat Hormuz disruption as a baseline condition rather than an exception with an end date.

The next pivot point will be whether Washington signals any willingness to meet Tehran’s stated conditions — and what, precisely, those conditions require. Iran has not made the full list public, and that opacity is itself a source of market uncertainty that compounds the supply disruption.

For background on the negotiations that preceded Monday’s expiration, see US-Iran Peace Talks Stall Over Oil and Hormuz and Turkey’s Role in Hormuz Ceasefire Talks. On the wider strategic picture, see Trump’s Iran Quagmire and the North Korea Opening.