UN Warns Iran War Pushing 45 Million Into Food Crisis

The United Nations World Food Programme warned Thursday that the US-Iran war is driving an additional 45 million people toward acute hunger, a figure that would push the global food-insecurity tally past the record 349 million set during the 2022 Ukraine crisis.

The alarm, sounded 98 days into the conflict that began February 28, marks the starkest assessment yet of the war’s humanitarian toll beyond the battlefield. Rising oil prices, shipping diversions around the Strait of Hormuz, and mounting fuel and fertilizer costs are rippling through food supply chains in more than 50 countries already facing acute hunger, according to Al Jazeera.

The numbers

WFP modeling projects that if oil prices remain above $100 per barrel through July, the 45-million figure could become reality. The agency currently counts 318 million people as food insecure worldwide. The projected increase would affect every major region:

• East and Southern Africa: 17.7 million additional people across 16 countries
• West and Central Africa: 10.4 million across 12 countries
• Asia: 9.1 million across 10 countries
• Middle East and North Africa: 5.2 million across 12 countries
• Latin America and the Caribbean: 2.2 million across three countries

“If this conflict continues, it will send shockwaves across the globe, and families who already cannot afford their next meal will be hit the hardest,” said Carl Skau, WFP Deputy Executive Director and Chief Operating Officer.

Somalia, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka hit hardest

Three countries illustrate the scale of the crisis.

In Somalia, 6.5 million people — roughly one-third of the population — are expected to face severe hunger in 2026. An additional 2.5 million Somalis have become acutely food insecure since the conflict began, with essential commodity prices rising more than 20 percent, according to the WFP. Nearly 60 percent of households are projected to be unable to afford essential needs, up from 47 percent in 2025.

Afghanistan faces a compounding disaster. The WFP says 17.4 million people are affected by the war’s economic fallout, with 2.3 million additional people pushed into acute hunger on top of 13.8 million who were already food insecure before the conflict. A WFP acting director recently witnessed hundreds of mothers removing malnourished children from a rural clinic near Jalalabad because nutrition supplies had been depleted.

In Sri Lanka, 1.3 million people are at risk of being unable to meet basic food needs.

Supply chains fracturing

The humanitarian impact extends well beyond food prices. Maritime diversions around the Cape of Good Hope — forced by the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz — are adding two to four weeks to shipping times. One-fifth of global oil shipments normally transit the strait.

The cost increases are severe. Air freight for vaccines shipped from India to Ethiopia, Nigeria, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo has risen by up to 70 percent. Trucking costs for therapeutic food in Somalia, South Sudan, and the DRC are up 33 percent. Sea freight for education materials to Yemen and Mozambique has surged as much as 150 percent. Critical humanitarian cargo now faces delays of four to six months.

“What begins as a disruption to shipping lanes can spiral into a humanitarian crisis,” said Jean-Cédric Meeus, a UNICEF official.

A UNCTAD analysis found that 65 of the 75 most vulnerable economies are net oil importers, home to nearly one billion people. A sustained 50 percent oil price increase would add more than $20 billion annually to their import bills.

WFP forced to cut coverage

The funding squeeze is already forcing the WFP to scale back. The agency will serve 1.5 million fewer people than originally planned for 2026. If the conflict continues for six months, more than nine million people could lose assistance entirely.

Sudan, which imports roughly 80 percent of its wheat supply, faces particular vulnerability as shipping costs climb and delivery timelines stretch.

Wider economic pressure

The food crisis compounds a broader economic squeeze from the conflict. Iran’s oil exports have collapsed to a six-year low as the naval blockade tightens, removing supply from global markets. Thursday’s drone attack on Oman’s Mina Al Fahal terminal demonstrated that infrastructure well beyond Iran’s borders is now at risk. Meanwhile, Iran’s attempt to impose fees on Hormuz transit and its conditions for any deal with the Trump administration suggest the disruptions are unlikely to ease soon.

The WFP’s Skau framed the warning bluntly: the scenarios modeled in March are “now playing out in real time” across the world’s most vulnerable countries.