Congress Prepares for a Consequential Iran Vote

Congress returned from Memorial Day recess this week facing a question it has dodged for more than three months: whether to force President Trump to withdraw American forces from Iran. Both chambers are now closer to passing war powers resolutions than at any prior point in the conflict, Foreign Policy reported Wednesday, with votes expected in the coming days that could deliver the most significant congressional rebuke of a wartime president since the original War Powers Resolution became law in 1973.

The convergence of two tracks — a concurrent resolution in the House and a joint resolution in the Senate — comes as Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged under questioning on Capitol Hill that Iran still possesses meaningful military capabilities despite months of American strikes, and as the war spread to Gulf Arab states that had previously stayed on the sidelines.

The House: H.Con.Res.38

The House is expected to vote this week on H.Con.Res.38, a concurrent resolution sponsored by Rep. Gregory Meeks of New York, the ranking Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee. The measure directs the president to terminate the use of U.S. armed forces in hostilities against Iran unless Congress passes a declaration of war or a specific authorization for the use of military force, according to the bill text on Congress.gov.

Three earlier House votes on war powers failed, but momentum has shifted. The most recent attempt ended in a 212-212 tie, CBS News reported. After that near-miss, Republican leadership pulled a subsequent vote in late May when whip counts showed the resolution would pass. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania publicly confirmed he planned to vote for withdrawal, and Meeks told reporters at the time: “We had the votes without question and they knew it.”

Speaker Mike Johnson declined to answer reporters’ questions about the delay. Rep. Steve Scalise said the postponement was intended to give absent members a chance to vote, CBS News reported. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries called the maneuver “cowardly.”

A concurrent resolution does not go to the president for signature, which means it cannot be vetoed. However, the Supreme Court ruled in INS v. Chadha (1983) that such legislative vetoes lack the force of law — a legal gray area that has hung over the War Powers Resolution for decades. Supporters argue the vote still carries political weight by putting every member on record.

The Senate: Kaine’s joint resolution

In the Senate, a separate track led by Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia could produce a binding vote as soon as next week, Foreign Policy reported. Kaine’s joint resolution, unlike the House concurrent resolution, would go to the president’s desk and could be vetoed. Overriding a veto would require a two-thirds supermajority in both chambers — a threshold supporters have not yet approached.

But the Senate arithmetic has changed. Last month, enough Republicans broke ranks to advance the measure on a 50-47 procedural vote, the first time Democrats had won such a vote on Iran war powers since hostilities began. Three Republican senators — John Cornyn of Texas, Tommy Tuberville of Alabama, and Thom Tillis of North Carolina — were absent for the vote, according to CBS News. Whether that absence repeats on a final passage vote is an open question.

Kaine told reporters Wednesday that Trump “can’t ignore the political signal” Congress is preparing to send and urged the administration to “find an off ramp,” Foreign Policy reported. He pointed to the war’s mounting costs — including the $25 billion price tag Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth disclosed — and the proximity of November’s midterm elections as factors driving Republican defections.

In the event of a 50-50 tie on final passage, Vice President J.D. Vance would be called upon to break the deadlock. Vance is widely viewed as less hawkish on Iran than other senior administration officials, and his vote is not considered a certainty in the White House’s favor, Foreign Policy noted.

Rubio concedes Iran retains capabilities

The congressional maneuvering unfolded against the backdrop of Rubio’s testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Wednesday — his first appearance on Capitol Hill since the war began, PBS NewsHour reported.

Rubio argued that Iran’s military capabilities “have been reduced” but acknowledged the threat has not been eliminated, according to Middle East Eye. He conceded that Tehran still operates small vessels armed with machine guns and retains some drone functionality, though he contended Iran can no longer execute the large-scale coordinated drone swarm operations it previously mounted.

Rep. Dina Titus, a Nevada Democrat, pressed the point: “So is the war still on or is the war off?” Rubio did not offer a definitive answer, Middle East Eye reported. When Titus raised concerns about the cost of using advanced weapons systems to counter inexpensive Iranian drones, Rubio agreed “that needs to change.”

The exchange undercut the administration’s argument that Iran has been effectively neutralized. Hours after Rubio testified, Iranian drones and missiles struck Kuwait International Airport, killing one person, while Bahrain intercepted three incoming missiles — a demonstration that Iran’s asymmetric arsenal remains operational even if its conventional forces have been degraded.

Oil costs mount as Hormuz stays closed

The economic pressure feeding congressional opposition showed no sign of easing. Kuwait Petroleum Company managing director Shaikh Khaled Ahmad Al-Sabah said Wednesday that even after the Strait of Hormuz reopens, it would take 6 to 8 weeks to restore 70 percent of normal oil output and an additional month for the remaining 30 percent, OilPrice.com reported. Al-Sabah cited the need to stabilize “wells, gathering systems, storage facilities, export terminals and logistics networks after prolonged outages.”

The timeline means that even a ceasefire tomorrow would leave American consumers facing elevated energy prices well into the fall — precisely the period when midterm campaigns will be at full intensity. President Trump has claimed that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is directly involved in negotiations and that Iran has agreed to forgo nuclear weapons, but no verified framework has emerged.

What comes next

The 60-day War Powers clock expired in late April without Congress either authorizing the conflict or compelling a withdrawal. The administration has continued operations under its own interpretation of executive authority. A successful House vote on H.Con.Res.38 would not legally compel withdrawal but would represent the first time either chamber has voted to end the Iran campaign. A successful Senate vote on Kaine’s joint resolution would force a presidential veto — and a subsequent override fight that would test whether enough Republicans are willing to break with their party’s president five months before an election.

Both votes are expected before Congress leaves for its next recess. The outcome will determine whether the most significant American military operation since the 2003 invasion of Iraq continues with Congress’s tacit acquiescence or under an explicit congressional objection — a distinction that may matter more in the history books than in the operational orders, but one that members of both parties appear increasingly unwilling to avoid.