Italy, Russia, Pakistan Split Over Tehran's Hormuz Tolls Plan

Three Eurasian and Western capitals staked out competing positions on Tehran’s Strait of Hormuz tolls plan in the twelve hours leading into Sunday, with Italy demanding an unrestricted reopening of the waterway, Russia publicly backing China’s de-escalation line, and Pakistan offering its services as a backchannel for a second round of Washington-Tehran talks. CNN reported the same morning that the Trump administration itself is split between hardliners pressing for a tighter blockade and an internal talks faction.

The diplomatic spread is the news. A week ago the international response to Iran’s proposed transit fees ran on a single track — quiet objections from Asian buyers, a contested US-Bahrain resolution at the UN Security Council, and silence from Beijing. By Sunday morning the response had fractured into at least four distinct postures, each backed by a head of government or a foreign ministry on the record. The administration’s own split, if it holds, narrows the room President Trump has to choose between escalation and a negotiated off-ramp without one faction breaking publicly.

Rome demands an unrestricted reopening

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said the Strait of Hormuz should be reopened to commercial traffic “without tolls or restrictions,” according to Middle East Monitor. The statement is the first time a G7 head of government has framed Tehran’s proposed fees as a non-starter in public, and it puts Rome to the right of Brussels on the question of what an acceptable settlement looks like.

The wording matters. Meloni did not call for negotiations over the tolls or for a phased reduction. She called for the strait to function as it did before the current crisis — open, unpriced, and governed by the transit-passage regime that has held since the 1982 Law of the Sea Convention. That position aligns Italy with the operational logic of the US blockade CENTCOM disclosed Saturday without endorsing the blockade itself, and it gives Washington a European partner to point to as the European naval coalition forming in the eastern Mediterranean takes shape.

Moscow lines up behind Beijing

Russia’s permanent representative to international organizations in Vienna, Mikhail Ulyanov, said Moscow backs China’s position on the Hormuz dispute. Beijing’s stance, as the Chinese delegation has presented it at the Security Council and in public statements through the week, is for the strait to remain open to all commercial traffic and for the dispute over tolls to be resolved through dialogue rather than a Council resolution endorsing the US-led blockade.

What Ulyanov did not say is as important as what he did. The Russian envoy did not endorse the toll plan itself, did not condemn the US Navy’s enforcement operations, and did not signal any Russian commitment to back Iran materially if the standoff escalates. The posture is alignment with Beijing’s procedural objections, not a Moscow-Tehran axis. That distinction gives the Trump administration room to keep pressing on Iran without first having to manage a public Russian counter-position, and it preserves a Russian seat at any eventual settlement.

The Sino-Russian convergence still narrows the diplomatic ground at the UN. With Moscow now publicly aligned, the US-Bahrain draft resolution faces two declared opponents on the Council. The procedural fight Beijing and Tehran pushed back against earlier this week now has a second permanent member on the same side.

Islamabad offers a backchannel

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said a second round of Washington-Tehran talks could “bring peace” to the region and indicated Islamabad is prepared to play a facilitating role. The offer is the most concrete public bid from any third party to host or convene a second round since the first set of talks broke off without a verification framework.

Pakistan’s value as a venue rests on three points it can credibly claim: a working relationship with Tehran across the Sistan border, a long-running security relationship with Washington, and a constituency in the Gulf — chiefly Saudi Arabia and the UAE — that would prefer a negotiated outcome to a sustained closure. Whether the Trump administration treats the offer as serious depends on whether the internal talks faction wins enough room to take it.

Inside the administration

CNN reported Sunday that President Trump faces “a growing dilemma” over Iran strategy, with the administration split between hardliners arguing for a tighter blockade and tougher economic measures and a talks faction arguing for a return to direct negotiations before the Gulf situation hardens into a sustained naval confrontation. The reporting did not name the principals on either side, and the White House has not publicly addressed the split.

The dilemma is real on the merits. The blockade is producing measurable enforcement results — 78 redirected vessels and four disabled, on the CENTCOM tally — but it is also producing the kind of incident pressure that turns single boardings into crises. The talks-faction case is that a second round, even on narrow terms, would buy time to keep the Fifth Fleet from having to enforce the strait against a sovereignty claim Tehran formalized over the weekend. The hardliner case is that any pause now rewards Iran for the toll threat and invites a repeat.

What this means for Hormuz transit

The practical question for shippers, P&I clubs, and flag states is when the toll schedule is actually published in the Iranian Official Gazette and whether the IRGC Navy is given rules of engagement to enforce it. Tehran has signaled intent without committing to a date. Analysis: a publication this week would land into a diplomatic field that is now visibly fractured rather than uniformly opposed — a condition that may strengthen Tehran’s calculation that some buyers will pay rather than divert.

Beijing’s silence remains the variable that ties the rest together. As OilPrice argued in its analysis of China’s posture, the absence of a public Chinese signal against the toll plan removes the one piece of pressure Tehran would find hardest to ignore. Russia’s alignment behind Beijing on Sunday extends that ambiguity rather than resolving it.

Watch points

The next forty-eight hours carry three markers. First, whether the Trump administration accepts or rebuffs the Pakistani offer in public — silence will read as the hardliners holding. Second, whether any other G7 capital follows Meloni in calling for an unrestricted reopening, or whether Rome stays out front alone. Third, whether the Iranian government publishes the toll schedule into the current diplomatic spread or holds it back to see how the split inside the administration resolves.